Prediction time! In this post I will analyze the current Old World Bat Pestilence (COVID-19) situation (mainly California, where I live). The idea here is that I make some falsifiable claims that I can either,

1. smirk to myself about predicting correctly (and maybe make some bucks of stock trades and stuff)
2. analyze stuff to see why I was wrong and hopefully learn something

In either case, I do a write-up here because it is more interesting than being wish-washy and saying "it's complicated" without making any concrete predictions.

No "Universal Vaccination"

I don't think that we'll see a widely accepted vaccine being developed in the next month or two. By the time something is developed, I think that the main "scare" of COVID-19 will be past. Already, we see many places starting to open up despite there being no vaccine.

Some sub-claims:

• Things will continue opening up, regardless if there is a vaccine or not.
• If a vaccine is developed, stuff will likely already be sufficiently opened up that people will opt out of taking it unless forced to (e.g. by their employer, government mandate)
• Overall, I think more people will start getting flu shots and stuff after COVID-19, but institutional skepticism on a whole will likewise grow
• Forced vaccination will be met with resistance from vocal minorities; in practice I think you can't force everyone to have a vaccine.

Remote Work Will Grow, But Not Dramatically

Many people got to "experiment" with remote work. Most people I have talked with that have kept their jobs don't like remote work. With certain exceptions (e.g. computer programers), I think that by-in-large, people will want to continue working in offices.

Nerds often think that other people have "rational" motivation structures like them. They fail to see that,

• Many (most?) people are strongly driven by external motivation, which can be negative (fear of punishment) or positive (praise, raises, etc.); traditional workplaces make it easier to deliver these incentives than remote work which puts a lot of technology-fiddling overhead on most involved
• Most people at some point declare "technological bankruptcy"; they simply decide they don't/can't use XYZ technology and stop learning more; learning new tech all the time is something nerds gravitate towards, but most people hate doing this and will resist change
• Remote work is costly; while paying rent for an office is expensive, wasting time dealing with people's failing microphones, noisy backgrounds, accidental screenshares, etc. wastes a lot of time

Many jobs filled with people already well-prepared for remote work will likely continue exploring/expanding remote operations.

However, I think there will be a general trend for non-nerd work to not become more remote; many people have tried remote work and decided they don't like it.

The Establishment Will Survive (and Thrive)

Many small businesses might get hit very hard, but the big players are likely to sale through all of this stuff OK. Many tech stocks are likely to do quite well, e.g. Amazon. I think that banks and oil will also end up OK because of how tied up in government things they are; the establishment is continuing the "too big to fail" thing.

I think that banks, companies, etc. will have rather lenient policies for repaying loans and stuff for the time being—meaning, we're not going to see thugs from credit card companies knocking on people's doors demanding money any time soon.

However, like college debt, I think that repayment stuff will be remembered by the establishment and there will be nothing like The Jubilee given to those hard hit by COVID-19, just temporary "good enough" relief to prevent angry mobs with pitchforks and fire.

Aftermath

As the COVID-19 stuff slowly wraps up, I think that people will emerge with dramatically different conclusions. Many prepper/right-wing types will emerge feeling vindicated for taking things into their own hands and preparing supplies and stuff before all this virus business. They—along with many religious people—will (correctly) see that,

• Times of chaos can and will be used by governments to extend usual authority and implement new "temporary" policies
• "Temporary" measures put in place during times of emergency may be used for all sorts of tricky stuff later (see 9-11, PATRIOT Act, and the expansion of the surveillance state)
• Many on the political left would like a more "maternal" state caring for (and controlling) the population in various ways, e.g. pushing solutions for how the nation as a whole should evaluate and respond to risk

On the other hand, more left-leaning types will emerge feeling vindicated by (correctly) seeing,

• Their nations are ununified; struggles between different groups and partisan media that focuses on differences rather than on how people are similar
• Many rejecting mainstream science (acting like "idiots" in their view); we will see many examples of more right-wing type people dying and stuff because they didn't listen to the establishment
• A more urgent demand/need for healthcare reform (or ¡revolución!) in the United States
• How capitalism as a sole operating principle doesn't solve everything (think: critique of Atlas Shrugged by Ayn Rand)

I don't expect to see much jumping from one side or the other of the political spectrum. Left-leaning people will dig deeper into the need for institutional solutions while more libertarian x right-leaning people will want the establishment to BTFO. Both the left and right broadly (no, you NUANCE BROS, I'm not going to "resist the dichotomy") will be able to find validation for their worldviews.

Though, all in all, I think the right-wingers will come out feeling a lot better than the left-wingers overall. This is because the left-wingers want institutional solutions to what they perceive as problems, and COVID-19 (metaphorically) kicked the establishment in the balls. The establishment is rolling around in pain a little bit now and Bernie Sanders is not the Dem party blessed choice. Meanwhile, right wingers with their values in self-sufficiency and building up families and communities (rather than exploring the arts) instead of state power (okay, now I'm talking more about libertarian leaning right-wing types, not war-hawk hegemonic theocratic types) will emerge from all of this feeling like had been on the right track before all of this with their trucks, guns, and gallons of water.